Jacob Harris

Jacob Harris
Credulous Roberts Court Still Pretends To Believe Trump And His DOJ
INSIDE: Abrego Garcia ... Mahmoud Khalil ... JD Vance
04.11.25 – 4:16 pm
Purge Watch test?
Let’s say up here we have some kind of introductory subhead
03.06.25 – 5:18 pm
Edblog Post
11.08.24 – 8:04 pm
November 4, 2024 6:34 p.m.
An Interesting Data Point

I’ve told you a few times about Professor Michael McDonald’s early vote analysis. He has a paywalled final analysis of the early vote in North Carolina. The upshot is that by conventional early vote analysis, Donald Trump appears poised to win North Carolina. That wouldn’t be a surprising result either on the basis of history or the current polls, which show a dead heat race with the slightest advantage to Trump.

Read More
November 4, 2024 6:33 p.m.
Political Betting Markets Remain Over-Valued

If you’ve followed my thinking on this you know I’ve long had a pretty low opinion of political betting markets. Their user base tends to lean right, with the built-in bias you would expect that to cause. They’re also prone to manipulation. But the biggest problem is that, in my view, they’re largely derivative of polls and the press narratives. Garbage in, garbage out. I will simply note that the wild gyrations all of them have been doing over the last three or four days provide, I think, some backing for my argument.

Morning Memo 2
07.16.24 – 6:23 pm
The Morning Memo 07/16
07.16.24 – 6:21 pm